| Level | Trigger | Timeline | Prob. | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium | Pause lapses | Q4 2026 | 40% | +15–25% |
| High | APEC fails | Mid‑2026 | 25% | +25–40% |
Sources: CSIS, Rare Earth Supply Chain Risks (Oct 9, 2025) [csis.org]; Reuters, "APEC Trade Tensions Forecast" (Oct 30, 2025) [reuters.com]; IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 (Oct 2025). Probabilities from expert scenario modeling; impacts based on +15‑40% NdPr sensitivity.