Markets reward judgement, but judgement usually stays invisible. Pharos makes mine explicit.
It is not an AI, an automated model, or a piece of software.
It is the structure I have built around twenty-five years of institutional judgement: the reasoning behind every thesis I publish, every position I take, and every piece of advisory work I produce.
Every thesis becomes a node in a larger scenario map. It branches into alternative futures, carries explicit probabilities, links to the theses that would reinforce or invalidate it across commodities, finance, geopolitics and technology, and states the condition that would prove it wrong.
Markets rarely move on one event. They move because several developments reinforce or contradict one another, and Pharos makes those relationships visible. A published report is static; markets are not, so every thesis keeps evolving after publication.
Founding members can follow the reasoning itself: the competing scenarios, the changing probabilities, the corroborating evidence as it arrives, and the conditions that would force the view to change. Most of it is gated.
One node, Stagflation, is open below, so you can see how the process works. Hover a node to trace its links.
You have opened one node. The other 42 theses on the map, their branches, weights, and falsifiers, and the links between them, are for Founding members. £3,000 / year.